Gender Inequality and Demographic Change: Implications for Long-Run Growth

Abstract. This study examines Colombia’s demographic transition through a gender lens and its implications for long-run economic growth. Drawing on census data, vital statistics, and international comparisons, we document demographic changes as well as gender gaps across the life cycle. The findings reveal a rapid demographic transition marked by an open window of opportunity associated with the demographic dividend, whose full potential remains constrained by gender inequalities. On the one hand, men exhibit high excess mortality during their prime working ages, reducing the stock of human capital and shrinking the labour supply. On the other hand, women continue to face barriers that constrain their labour market participation. Following Lagerlöf (2003), in which women bear the opportunity costs of child-rearing, we replicate the dynamics of fertility, population growth, and income per capita over the period 1905–2024. The simulations suggest that greater gender equality fosters human capital accumulation, leading to higher and more sustained economic growth. The study highlights the importance of policies that promote gender equality, redistribute care responsibilities, and expand female labour market inclusion as key strategies to maximise the benefits of the demographic dividend and mitigate the fiscal and economic pressures associated with population ageing in Colombia.